I was careful not to indicate that people should make preparations *today.* But if the models continue clustering around the idea of impact of a warm-core storm in this region, then crossing fingers and listening to local media could actually be a less than adequate plan. In terms of your characterization of the GFS as being "the most commonly used," I'll agree when it comes to most commercial meteorologists, which does not lend it any kind of special status. The European model and Navy model (which I have pictured) score plenty of victories in the forecasting game. You might want to re-check the GFS ensemble member spaghetti, btw. Most, increasingly, show the kind of scenario that my post details. Thanks for reading!

I tend to agree with you that there is a possibility that the storm will affect the east coast. The ECMWF model gives the worst case scenario and with a large negative NAO could cause a strike to be potentially catastrophic. The reason I say the GFS is the most common model used is exactly what you said, it is a commercial use model therefore the one most people will see displayed for their local news media weather reports. I have never seen them use the NAM, Navy and all other models, too many to list.

spoken like a true meteorologist!

Sandy will NOT be a hurricane
This doesn't mean there won't be significant
when/if it arrives here
likely won't even
if this system tracks just right
still much to be determined.
people should be thinking about their plan of action
should what would likely be a major

WELL, THAT SHOULD COVER JUST ABOUT EVERY EVENTUALITY! LOL

It's still a 5 to 7 day forecast. How many 5-7 day forecasts are right on the money? None. It makes more sense with a potentially major storm to deal with all of the possibilities and eliminate some of them along the way. It will not be a hurricane. The waters are getting too cold over the North Atlantic to support a storm like that this far north. You can still get significant wind and rain out of Nor'Easters and so if the track is right meaning it doesn't curl west too far south into New Jersey or too far north into Nova Scotia and miss us sparing us the worst of the conditions there could be significant impacts to this area. A lot can happen over the course of the next several days and it's best to evaluate the entire package of information before getting too much into specifics at this point in time. If you think you can track a storm with accuracy down to a few miles I challenge you to do so.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/261161360371617792/photo/1

I've been following Sandy closely for days, as I'm sure you have! The models are indicating, increasingly, that it does make impact as a warm-core storm:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/261172348005277696/photo/1

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/241505.shtml

NHC says Post-tropical storm. As it interacts with the upper low it will transition from a purely tropical system to a post tropical or hybrid system.

So weather scientists can build models that correctly identify the amount of carbon in the air and mean tempertures across arbitrary periods of history dating back hundreds and possibly thousands of years, but you are unable to build a model to forcast the weather 5 days out?

Either that's the most facetious comment I've read today or you've spent too much time watching David Hasselhoff there, Baywatch.

I agree with you, Heather. It's simply too early to start worrying the general public about an event that may or may not be all that bad.

I definitely don't want people to be scared. I definitely do want them to be *aware.* My post is intended as a constructive head's-up. Thanks for reading!

Maybe you're not listening to the right meteorologists. :)

That's pretty harsh. For one I am not on TV, I work for a private company. Secondly I personally know and went to school with some of the people on TV around here and I'd say they and the ones I don't know do a pretty good job.

In 20-plus years of writing about weather and following it obsessively, this is the *first* time that I have chosen to give people a head's-up about a storm this far out. And I wholeheartedly agree with you that you need to be careful if you're truly trying to serve the public. Near the end of the article, I include the following: "There’s a reason that the NWS avoids making forecasts too soon: It can’t afford to cry wolf. But it’s time to let the public know that something is in the offing here."

Thanks for reading!

So wait till the last minute to make sure you are right instead of giving the public a heads up to protect your name ? I would rather be prepared ahead of time than wait till the last minute. Thank you Harold for informing the public of your opinion, I appreciate it.

No, you don't wait until the last minute to protect your name. You wait until 3-4 days away so that you are more certain of the impacts of the storm. 3-4 days is still a lot of time on a meteorological scale, especially when you have a situation in which many pieces of energy thousands of miles apart have to come together to create a storm. If you're predicting details well in advance, when there is still a good chance that things won't come together, you aren't serving the public well. Sure, let people know of the possibility of something happening, but I don't think that it's a good idea to go into specifics or use strong language when there is still so much room for drastic changes.

I agree Brad. There is a fine line between alerting and alarming the public. Over the next 24-48 hours much will be learned about this system and it's potential impacts on this area and the appropriate forecasts will be issued. That's still 3-5 days in advance of the event and in plenty of time to alert the public to take any necessary action. For now outlining the possibilities is the best that can be done. Most of the model changes today occurred with the 12Z runs which weren't complete in time for the noon news. Internet blogs have been updated and the potential has been outlined. With the 6PM news cycle the public I'm sure will be well aware of the potential and we'll take it from there.

I really don't understand your posts, Brad and Bill. What's the difference between alerting people 3-4 days out as compared to 4-5 days, which this article does? While it may not make landfall until Tues/Wed, storm surges impact ocean vessels much earlier. As I recall for Irene, this state, especially the power companies, was extremely ill-prepared and many didn't have power for a week. Quite possibly the "anniversary" of this event and a similar weather system heading our way compounds the situation and the language folks are using.

Furthermore, waiting until 3 days out to alert or alarm is impossible with the 24 hour coverage these events get. Most people want to know as soon as possible so they can prepare ahead and not make mad dashes to the store at the same time as everyone else.

That's a good point Brad. I've always felt that the emphasis with storms like this is ratings. Using stronger wording keeps people glued to the weather which means higher ratings and higher revenue. Storm of the Century of the Week, kind of thing.

I couldn't agree more, Wayne. Well stated as always.

If I had combed through model runs and chosen the most extreme one, mentioned only it, and said it was a lock, then I would agree with you. In fact, though, if you are looking at met sites and looking at the *dozens* of model runs on Sandy, then you know that I chose a moment in the forecast evolution when the head's-up to the public could -- at least potentially -- do maximum good. The models were abandoning the GFS solution AND the GFS solution was in the process of changing, toward a far more hazardous event. Is there a chance that a non-extreme event is what we get? You bet. That's what I'm hoping for.

That said, there can be a tendency at the NWS and among some mets to downplay, downplay, when a few extra days of warning could do some good.

Thanks for reading!

Just because it is a hurricane doesn't mean it will remain one. Higher terrain over SE Cuba will serve to disrupt the intensity of the storm. Maybe the poster should defer to the people who know what they are talking about. :)

Mr. Nelson,
While I admit that the mountains of Eastern Cuba took about 5 mph off the wind speed, I also noticed that the barometric pressure dropped significantly. Would you agree that this indicative of a storm being stronger post-Cuba? (Dropped 10 millibars)

Joe-You're telling people to have enough non-perishable food and water in your home to last the family for at least a few WEEKS?

A FEW WEEKS is an awfully long time Joe-Don't you think you're going a bit overboard?

Nothing wrong with being prepared. Stuff happens. Sometimes without any warning at all. If you take Joe's advice and nothing happens what have you lost.

katherine-Nothing wrong with being prepared, but at least a few WEEKS of food and water?

Sorry katherine, but this is the year 2012 in the USA, not the 1800's in Haiti. Nobody is going to be stranded for a few weeks.

And all these years I thought I was prepared when I bought bread and milk. Now I have to buy water?

A large earth quake could disrupt services for weeks. Every one should be prepared for a disaster big or small. Working preparation in to your life can be as easy as rotating can food stock on your shelves and keeping five gallon water containers in stock. No need to be scared if your prepared .

Joe-The article is about a HURRICANE-not an earthquake. Using your logic, we should also prepare for a nuclear attack, a meteor shower, and an outbreak of the bubonic plague.

Next thing you'll be suggesting is we all dig huge underground fallout shelters in our backyards to prepare for the barrage of nuclear bombs being dropped on Tiverton.

Tiverton taxpayer...whatever you say. Just don't show up at joe's house when it hits the fan.

I can't imagine why anyone would not want to be prepared.

Having a few gallons of fresh water in the basement is a simple preparation.

Remember that if the power is out in your area, even the gas stations may be
in the dark - five gallons of water and a couple boxes of poptarts will go a ways.

I understand the impulse to "prep" for all eventualities - but an earthquake?
In Tiverton - an earthquake?

Naome Lixes Tell it to the people in New Orleans who were blaming Bush for the lack of preparation on their part . For instance. A terrorist with a dirty bomb could keep you in your house for a month. Is it possible ,I think it is. Am I going crazy over it. I just built preparation into my every day life. It comes natural to well organize individuals.

In some regards, the worst-case scenario is a direct-hit from the south as happened in 1938, partly because of the surge, partly because of the wind. In the case of Sandy, if it crosses directly over Rhode Island, it would likely be coming from the southeast rather than directly from the south. It would, nonetheless, push a lot of water into and up the Bay.

The storm is setting up to be unusually LARGE in terms of the size of its "wind field," to have a potentially historically low pressure at the time of landfall, and to cause widespread damage (not just near the point where the actual center hits).

You're right to be concerned about flooding rains. Severe weather, including tornadoes, is always a concern from landfalling hurricanes as well ...

Most computer models have Sandy making landfall as a warm-core storm, a hurricane, and then giving up the ghost to an epic cold-core storm. It is an enormous, complex, and dynamic meteorological set-up, potentially one for the textbook writers.

I'll be checking in here over the weekend, with at least further comments (and likely another post).

Thanks for reading.

Possibly the only good news associated with Sandy is the fact that so many leaves have come down from trees already. However bad tree damage proves to be, however widespread losses of electric power proves to be, both would have been far worse had Sandy raked the area just two weeks ago.

True Harold, though I think the biggest risk is South County with the moon high tides and flooding. Last tracking theory I saw earlyer was the eye going into NY city. That would be very bad for us with the surge up the bay on that side of the storm. Lets hope the prep work is going well. Self perparedness is the best answer since what will happen will happen no matter what. Better safe than sorry. But I do agree this looks like it could be quite the storm and reminds me of the Blizzard of 78 track coming off the water. Be glad it is not snow lol.